基于投资者情绪的市场均衡分析

在行为金融研究框架下,通过分析情绪投资者与理性投资者的市场均衡条件,构建基于投资者情绪的资产定价模型,并对模型进行了数值模拟。结果表明,投资者情绪是影响资产价格的重要因素:被情绪投资者高估的资产,其回报将下降;被情绪投资者低估的资产,其回报将增加;资产回报的变化程度与情绪投资者卖出低估资产的份额正相关,与资产预期回报金额的相关系数负相关;并且,乐观情绪与悲观情绪对资产价格的作用是非对称的。     

The impact of customer returns on pricing and order decisions

In this paper, we address the simultaneous determination of price and inventory replenishment when customers return product to the firm. We examine cases when the quantity of returned product is a function of both the quantity sold and the price, in single and multi-period problems, with and without uncertainty in demand.     

Asymptotic analysis of option pricing in a Markov modulated market

We address asymptotic analysis of option pricing in a regime switching market where the risk free interest rate, growth rate and the volatility of the stocks depend on a finite state Markov chain. We study two variations of the chain namely, when the chain is moving very fast compared to the underlying asset price and when it is moving very slow. Using quadratic hedging and asymptotic expansion, we derive corrections on the locally risk minimizing option price.     

滑雪场季卡定价促销模型研究

根据06~07年间全国主要滑雪场的门市价和季卡价,首先运用EVIEWS6计量软件做出散点图、残差分析图以及残差的自相关-偏相关图,然后运用最小二乘估计方法确定回归方程系数,建立回归和序列组合模型,并将滑雪场的门市价代入相应方程计算出季卡付费方式下滑雪场应制定的最优价格,最后做相应的误差分析并总结本文模型的优点与不足.     

Option Pricing for Log-Symmetric Distributions of Returns

We derive an option pricing formula on assets with returns distributed according to a log-symmetric distribution. Our approach is consistent with the no-arbitrage option pricing theory: we propose the natural risk-neutral measure that keeps the distribution of returns in the same log-symmetric family reflecting thus the specificity of the stock’s returns. Our approach also provides insights into the Black–Scholes formula and shows that the symmetry is the key property: if distribution of returns X is log-symmetric then 1/X is also log-symmetric from the same family. The proposed options pricing formula can be seen as a generalization of the Black–Scholes formula valid for lognormal returns. We treat an important case of log returns being a mixture of symmetric distributions with the particular case of mixtures of normals and show that options on such assets are underpriced by the Black–Scholes formula. For the log-mixture of normal distributions comparisons with the classical formula are given.      

Heavy-tails and regime-switching in electricity prices

In this paper we first analyze the stylized facts of electricity prices, in particular, the extreme volatility and price spikes which lead to heavy-tailed distributions of price changes. Then we calibrate Markov regime-switching (MRS) models with heavy-tailed components and show that they adequately address the aforementioned characteristics. Contrary to the common belief that electricity price models ‘should be built on log-prices’, we find evidence that modeling the prices themselves is more beneficial and methodologically sound, at least in case of MRS models.     

An EOQ model for perishable products with discounted selling price and stock dependent demand

A single item economic order quantity model is considered in which the demand is stock dependent. After a certain time the product starts to deteriorate and due to visualization effect and other aspects of deterioration the demand becomes constant. In that situation a discount on selling price provides significant increment in demand rate. In this paper we investigate how much discount on selling price may be given during deterioration to maximize the profit per unit time and whether a pre-deterioration discount affects the unit profit or not. A mathematical model is developed incorporating both pre- and post deterioration discounts on unit selling price, where analytical results reveal some important characteristics of discount structure. A numerical example is presented and sensitivity analysis of the model is carried out.     

预期性后悔和欣喜作用下的最优序贯搜索策略研究

根据经济学中的后悔理论,首次在经典的最优序贯搜索问题中引入了决策者在搜索过程中的后悔和欣喜心理. 模型发现,如果决策者具备完美预期,那么她对后悔和欣喜的敏感度之差将直接决定她的搜索行为与最优搜索的偏差程度和方向,并且对于预期性后悔的敏感度越大则搜索程度越低. 这符合实验文献里“搜索过少”的结论. 进一步分析发现,在停止搜索后能知晓反事件价格的情况下,带有预期性后悔和欣喜的搜索将会趋向于经典的最优搜索策略. 如果对于后悔和欣喜的敏感度会受到搜索过程中经历过的类似心理的影响,模型对价格召回也作出了合理解释.     

带短期价格折扣和允许两次特殊补货的库存决策模型

针对供应商提供短期价格折扣且允许零售商两次特殊补货的库存系统, 建立了以零售商库存效益最大化为目标的库存决策模型, 分析了模型的性质, 根据经济订单批量补货决策下补货时间点与折扣时段的关系, 确定了零售商在不同补货策略下的库存效益增值函数. 据此给出零售商相应的最优补货策略函数表达式, 提出了该模型的一个全局优化算法, 并通过数值算例验证了模型和算法的有效性与可行性.     

海洋湍流中光波特征参量和短期光束扩展的研究

Nikishov等建立的海洋湍流功率谱模型中,假设了海水有着稳定的分层.但是,实际海水通常不是稳定分层的,温度与盐度的涡流扩散率是不相等的.2017年,Elamassie等建立了考虑这些因素的更合理的海洋湍流功率谱模型.湍流介质中光波空间相干长度等基本特征参量在表征湍流强度和光传输相位校正技术等方面起着重要作用.本文基于Elamassie海洋湍流功率谱模型,重新推导出了海洋湍流中光波结构函数、光波空间相干长度和Fried参数的解析公式,并校验了所得公式的正确性.研究发现：当温度变化引起的光学湍流占主导地位时,Nikishov海洋湍流功率谱模型把湍流强度低估了;当盐度变化引起的光学湍流占主导地位时,Nikishov海洋湍流功率谱模型把湍流强度高估了.基于Elamassie海洋湍流功率谱模型,本文推导出了高斯光束短期光束扩展的半解析公式,并验证了其正确性.研究还表明：海水稳定分层与否,短期光束扩展差异很大.本文研究结果对水下湍流环境中的光通信、成像和传感等应用具有重要意义.